European photovoltaic (PV) installations are forecast to fall by more than 6 gigawatts (GW) in 2013, with 1.3 GW of this decline attributed to incoming EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese modules according to a recently released analysis from IHS (NYSE: IHS).
Despite this dramatic fall, IHS still predicts global installations will grow at a double-digit rate to 35 GW in 2013 driven by a surge in demand in Asia.
In its latest quarterly analysis on global PV installation demand, IHS cut has cut its forecast for the second half of 2013 in Europe by more than 1.3 GW, citing the anti-dumping tariffs that came into force on June 6. As a result of these duties, and several other factors, including changes to incentive systems, IHS predicts total European PV installations will fall to 11.6 GW in 2013, down 33 percent from 17.7 GW in 2012.
”Although the E.U. Commission has given a small window of opportunity by reducing the tariff to 11.8 percent for 60 days, IHS still expects dampened demand,” said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. “This decline comes in stark contrast to the sharp increase in module shipments from China as buyers stockpile ahead of the next tariff increase in August, As a result IHS has cut its European forecast for the second half of 2013 by 1.3 GW—a nearly 20 percent reduction from our previous outlook.”
The analysis found that the EU duties will accelerate the decline in European installations with biggest falls in Germany and Italy.
“Germany will account for the majority of this decline with installations 3 GW lower in 2013 than the previous year,” Sharma added. “Italy will also contract by another 2 GW.”
Double-digit growth still expected
Despite this huge fall in European demand, IHS still predicts that the global PV market will grow in 2013, with installations hitting 35 GW, up 11 percent from 31 GW in 2012.
However, unlike most previous years, Asia will be the driving force for growth, with installations in the region predicted to exceed 15 GW for the first time and thus account for 45 percent of global demand. This will make the Asian market larger than Europe for the first time.
China and Japan will account for the majority of this and IHS predicts they will become the two largest markets in 2013 based on volume. Japan will lead in terms of revenue, as IHS previously announced.
In addition, no European countries in 2013 will rank among the top three markets for the first time ever, and IHS’ PV Demand Tracker’s Top 10 ranking forecast for 2013 is now much more evenly balanced across all geographic regions.
Emerging markets provide relief—but not in 2013
While the solar market is continuing to fragment geographically in terms of end demand, solar companies cannot fully rely on so-called emerging markets to provide support amid waning demand in Europe in 2013.
IHS predicts that emerging markets will add 5.9 GW in 2013 up from 3.4 GW in 2012. However, this will be made up by more than 60 countries globally.
“The good news, however, is that installations in these regions will grow to 9 GW in 2014 and to more than 16 GW in 2017 highlighting the need for solar companies to focus on emerging markets—but more importantly picking the right ones,” Sharma concluded.
The IHS Global PV Demand Tracker is published quarterly and contains detailed analysis of PV installations in 60 countries.
Read More >> PV Demand Market Tracker - Quarterly – Q2’13